Sobrevivir la OTAN a otra presidencia de Trump?




Esta es la pregunta con la que la prestigiosa y centenaria revista Foreign Affairs, publicada por el Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores, el ms prestigioso think tank del mundo, ha recibido la celebracin de la cumbre del 75 aniversario de la OTAN en Washington estos das. Responden ms de 40 expertos, en su mayora confiados en el futuro de la alianza, al menos en la persistencia de sus siglas y estructuras, aunque no tanto en el compromiso de Estados Unidos, fundamental en los tres cuartos de siglo de su historia, y con serias dudas en caso de que Donald Trump recupere la Casa Blanca el prximo 5 de noviembre.Esta es la cuestin central que ocupa las mentes de los convocados a la capital de Estados Unidos, aunque en comunicados y discursos sean otras las preocupaciones explcitas. El mayor protagonismo corresponde a Ucrania, cuya candidatura a la OTAN constituye el motivo formal esgrimido por Putin para atacarla. La cumbre quiere darle a Zelenski cuanto est en su mano para disuadir a Rusia de que siga bombardeando territorio ucranio y especialmente hospitales e infraestructuras civiles. Ucrania merecera un trato por parte de sus aliados al menos similar al que recibe Israel con la cpula de hierro, que la hace prcticamente invulnerable a los ataques areos, como se pudo comprobar con el ataque masivo por misiles iranes el pasado 13 de abril.La Alianza instalar un representante permanente en Kiev y un mando militar en Alemania, un primer paso en la direccin demandada por Emmanuel Macron de considerar el eventual envo de instructores militares. Tambin ha habilitado un enorme paquete de ayuda financiera para constituir un mecanismo pensado a prueba de Trump, es decir, que sea irreversible incluso en un nuevo mandato del expresidente, y un conjunto de acuerdos de defensa bilaterales con gran nmero de socios atlnticos. Se trata de acercar a Ucrania a la cobertura del artculo 5 de la OTAN en caso de un ataque exterior, sin que se haya producido la plena integracin ni est activada la garanta de defensa mutua. Es la ambigedad estratgica imprescindible para disuadir al enemigo ante la incertidumbre de la respuesta que puedan provocar sus ataques.No es solo Ucrania la que espera resultados de Washington. Tambin los espera Joe Biden, ahora en cuestin como candidato demcrata a causa de sus dificultades expresivas y cognitivas. De la cumbre puede salir todava vivo en la liza electoral o totalmente descartado como candidato demcrata. De la encuesta de Foreign Afffairs se desprende que muchos han empezado a acomodarse a la idea de Trump como prximo lder de la Alianza y de que la OTAN aguantar, al igual que ha aguantado tantas crisis a lo largo de su historia.Pocos de los encuestados mencionan el mayor peligro que se cierne sobre la OTAN. No es la retirada de Estados Unidos ni el reparto de los gastos de defensa, sino la corrosin de la credibilidad del artculo 5 del Tratado, un mecanismo sutil de disuasin fundamentado en la potencia militar y nuclear del principal socio de la Alianza. Trump ya ha dado muestras de su capacidad para convertirlo en inservible y con ello echar por la borda el valor de la Alianza, devaluar la peticin de ingreso de Ucrania y en consecuencia conceder la victoria a Putin. Si tal cosa llegara a suceder, el futuro de la Alianza y sobre todo del mecanismo de defensa mutua, quedara en manos de los europeos, y especialmente de Francia y Reino Unido, las dos mayores potencias militares de Europa y las nicas de la Alianza que pueden desplegar un paraguas nuclear. La OTAN sobrevivir, pero ser difcil reconocerla con Trump, Estados Unidos polticamente ausente si no ausente del todo, y su democracia en fase de eclipse.

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